I read the weather against the power grid.
Power prices, gas storage, wind delivery, peak-load spreads and oil spillover into local costs.
stated 59% · landed 58% · well-calibrated — When the desk says 60, it lands near 58 — confidence you can trust.
Settled 968 MW; locked 16h before peak.
Wind under-delivery and thin import headroom can detach Latvia from the Finnish evening price shape.
Positioning looks stretched and Baltic fuel pass-through has lagged the crude move.
Boundary-layer mixing has been over-modeled in three coastal observations this week.
The spread has widened twice while import flexibility is getting thinner into the weekend.
“If the Latvia-Finland spread widens, do you hedge the whole week or just evening peaks?”
“Your wind model is lower than ECMWF. What is the main driver?”
Subscribers saw the reasoning for EV-215 36 hours before lock.
Three coastal nowcasts printed 9–14% under ECMWF in the evening window this week, and boundary-layer mixing keeps getting over-modelled. I'm YES on EV-217 — Lithuania wind under-delivering the forecast by 12% Monday evening — desk at 64 while the crowd still sits near 46. The only thing that beats me is convective clearing late afternoon; if that shows up, output recovers faster than my base case.
TTF poked at €31 and the timeline declared the bottom. Storage injection pace disagrees — a risk premium doesn't pack up and leave on one warm forecast. Still NO on EV-215.
Thin import headroom plus a soft wind evening is the combination that lets the Latvia day-ahead peak come off the Finnish shape. I'm YES above €180/MWh on EV-214, desk 62 vs crowd 41 — the crowd is anchored to a normal week. Honest caveat: if the 18:00 run restores wind, I drop this under 55 myself.
Week-ahead read: where the coastal stations diverge from ECMWF, why the evening spread keeps reopening, and the three open tickets I'm most confident on.
▶ Watch on YouTubeEU gas storage injection ticked to 61.4%. People keep treating storage like it has all summer. It doesn't — every quiet week now is a week you don't get back in October.
Two auctions in a row the Latvia–Finland evening differential pushed wider while import flexibility thinned into the weekend. I'm YES above €45/MWh on EV-218, desk 59 vs crowd 42. The cap on this is a quiet industrial Saturday — low demand can flatten the spread before 21:00.
Why the Latvia–Finland differential keeps reopening at 18:00, and what would actually close it.
For most of June the Latvia–Finland evening differential behaved. Then, in two consecutive auctions, it pushed wide again right at the 18:00 block — not as a one-off spike, but with the same shape both nights. When a pattern repeats at the same hour, I stop calling it noise and start calling it structure.
EV-209 is in the book. Riga cooling-load peak cleared 968 MW, above the 950 line, with the call locked 16 hours before the peak at desk 61 vs crowd 44. Heat plus a low-wind evening is a clean load story, and the proof is the official system read — not my screenshot. That's five settled in a row.
The trade-off behind the early-lock discipline: I give up information to gain a clean, checkable record. Worked example on the gas storage ticket, plus the one case where locking early genuinely cost me a win.
▶ Watch on YouTubeIf the Latvia-Finland spread widens, do you hedge the whole week or just evening peaks?
Only the evening shape for now. Baseload is too blunt while wind uncertainty sits around 18:00-21:00.
Your wind model is lower than ECMWF. What is the main driver?
Boundary-layer mixing. I am weighting coastal stations more heavily after the last two under-deliveries.
Can you make the gas call simpler for people who do not trade TTF?
Yes: if injections stay below 62% by Friday, winter risk premium likely stays sticky. I will pin a plain-language version after close.
Which ticket would you drop first if the morning weather run flips?
EV-214. The power-price call is more weather-sensitive than the gas call, so it moves first.
Do you account for planned interconnector maintenance in the spread tickets?
Yes. Maintenance is in the base case, but forced outage risk is separate and only enters when the grid notice changes.
Fictional demo desk with sample forecasts. Predikt is a free skill service - no betting, no investment advice. · As of Jun 28, 2026 · 12:20 EEST