Live: the Latvia–Finland evening spread

In at YES. €45 feels low for an evening with wind this quiet.

Crowd still under 50. Either they know something or they're asleep.

I'm watching the import headroom number more than the price right now. That's the tell tonight.

Coastal nowcast just dropped again. Leaning YES with you.

Don't count it before 19:00 — soft weekend demand can still flatten this.

Fair, but demand is soft and the import constraint is the binding one tonight. That's why I'm staying YES.

63% and climbing. This is detaching from Helsinki for real.

Heart rate going up watching this line move.

Locked YES at 69. Now we just read the print — no more model, only the auction.

Locked YES too. Fingers crossed on the 18:00 block.

There it goes. Helsinki staying calm, Riga lighting up.

Spread through €45 on the first block. Not settled till 21:00, but this is exactly the shape I called.