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Tight call at 1.085, but the level is heavy. Fed's hawkish bias + ECB patience = dollar bid persists. Closing sub-1.08 is the path of least resistance into quarter-end.
Contrarian take: DAX bulls are crowded at 18k. Earnings revisions for Mittelstand have rolled negative; rehedging flows ahead of ECB will push sentiment. Support at 17,600 is the real magnet.
Real rates way too tight for sub-2% growth environment. ECB's balance-sheet unwind is draining liquidity faster than expected—a cut becomes operational necessity, not just dovish preference.
Forecasting skill · not gambling · 16+