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Dark horse scenario: Orban secures a side-letter exemption on relocation percentages (calls it a 'protocol'), declares victory domestically, EU accepts it as face-saving compromise for unanimity. Happens before summer recess ends.
Austrian and Czech technical pushback on carbon capture definitions intensifying. These disputes that seem minor now (offset methodologies, verification standards) regularly derail July votes. Expect delay to late August or full Q3 rewrite.
The ITRE committee's pre-votes were overwhelming in favor. Greens + S&D + centrist EPP coalition locked down 412 votes. Tech lobby spent millions but couldn't move the needle when transparency became a sovereignty issue.
Forecasting skill · not gambling · 16+