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June WTI printed $80.24 monthly average. Supply discipline by OPEC+ + geopolitical premium locked in. Diesel cracks hit $18.50—demand real, not vapour.
Red Sea risk + OPEC extension announcement could trigger short covering rally into $86–87 zone. Refiner margin support + geopolitical bid too strong to dismiss. July volatility works both ways.
Wildcard: Saudi flips if Brent hits $92 pre-meeting (unlikely but possible). Or UAE breaks ranks to defend 2.5M bpd output floor. Only scenario I fade extension here.
Forecasting skill · not gambling · 16+