Will U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for June 2026 be at least +200,000 jobs (initial print)?
Predict if the BLS headline change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June 2026 is ≥ +200,000 in the initial release.
Closes in: 1 Jul, 12:00 · Resolves: 6 Jul 2026
Your call
Confidence
The crowd says · 24 predictions
Yes50%
No50%
The background
Monthly U.S. job gains averaged around 180k–200k in the late 2010s, with stronger prints during the 2021–2024 recovery. The first Friday in July typically brings the June report.
- Release timing
- Typically first Friday of the month at 8:30 ET
- Base rate
- ~45% of months ≥ +200k in recent years
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the U.S. BLS Employment Situation news release shows the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June 2026 is ≥ +200,000 in the initial (first) estimate; otherwise NO. Later revisions do not affect resolution.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)