Will the EUR/USD rate be at least 1.12 on 2026-07-10 (ECB reference via Frankfurter)?
Forecast whether the ECB reference EUR/USD rate on July 10, 2026 is ≥ 1.12.
Resolves: 11 Jul 2026
Outcome
Yes
11 / 25 correct
Your call
The crowd says · 25 predictions
No56%
Yes44%
Playroom
Who has the nerve to put it on record?
Make the call, argue the edge, come back for the receipt.
leading callNo56%
Live thread
Put your take on record
No is ahead at 56%, but the swing is still live. Best counterargument gets interesting here.
linewatcherI want one hard source, not vibes. The receipt matters more than the split.
Proof check: this room resolves on 11 Jul 2026. If your take depends on a different source, post it before close.
The background
EUR/USD traded roughly between 1.04 and 1.12 through much of 2023–2025, with swings driven by interest rate differentials and growth data.
- ECB sets reference
- Business days, early afternoon CET
- Base rate
- ~40% weekly chance to touch ≥1.12 in recent years
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the Frankfurter API returns EUR→USD ≥ 1.12 for 2026-07-10 (ECB reference rate); otherwise NO.
Source: Frankfurter (ECB reference rates)