Will the European Commission register at least one new European Citizens' Initiative by 2026-08-15?
Predict whether the EC will publish a decision to register any new European Citizens' Initiative by August 15, 2026.
Closes in: 5 Aug, 12:00 · Resolves: 16 Aug 2026
Your call
Longer odds pay more — being right when the crowd doubts you is worth far more.
Confidence
The crowd says · 25 predictions
No52%
Yes48%
The background
The Commission registers several ECIs each year after legal admissibility checks. Decisions are posted on the official ECI Register.
- Cadence
- A handful of registrations per year
- Base rate
- ~40–60% chance within a ~7-week window
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the official ECI Register shows at least one initiative with status 'Registered' and a Commission decision date on or before 2026-08-15 (and on/after 2026-06-26); otherwise NO.
Source: European Commission – ECI Register